By Steve Klepper

There is a divide on the Fourth Circuit on how to calculate a litigant’s odds of success. When a party seeks a preliminary injunction, the factors include the likelihood of success on the merits. Three recent Fourth Circuit decisions address the “multiplicative problem” when the movant must win on several issues.

The most recent offers what I’ll call the “Steph Curry Hypothesis.” Judge Quattlebaum, in United States v. Herrera-Juarez, calculated that a movant with a 75% chance of success on each of three dispositive issues cannot establish a likelihood of success: